A scrambled G7 agenda as world leaders race to de-escalate the Israel-Iran conflict

15 June 2025, 04:24 | Updated: 15 June 2025, 16:49

The return of Donald Trump to the G7 was always going to be unpredictable. That it is happening against the backdrop of an escalating conflict in the Middle East makes it even more so.

Expectations had already been low, with the Canadian hosts cautioning against the normal joint communique at the end of the summit, mindful that this group of leaders would struggle to find consensus.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney carefully laid down an agenda that was uncontroversial in a bid to avoid any blow-ups between President Trump and allies, who of late have been divided like never before - be it over tariffs and trade, Russia and Ukraine, or, more recently Israel's conduct in Gaza.

But discussions around critical minerals and global supply chains will undoubtedly drop down the agenda as leaders convene at a precarious moment.

Sir Keir Starmer, on his way over to Canada for a bi-lateral meeting in Ottawa with Mr Carney before travelling on to the G7 summit in Kananaskis, underscored the gravity of the situation as he again spoke of de-escalation, while also confirming that the UK was deploying more British fighter jets to the region amid threats from Tehran that it will attack UK bases if London helps defend Israel against airstrikes.

Really this is a G7 agenda scrambled as world leaders race to de-escalate the worst fighting between Tel Aviv and Tehran in decades. Trump has for months been urging Israel not to strike Iran as he worked towards a diplomatic deal to halt uranium enrichment. Further talks had been due on Sunday - but are now not expected to go ahead.

All eyes will be on Trump in the coming days, to see if the US - Israel's closest ally - will call on Israel to rein in its assault. The US has so far not participated in any joint attacks with Tel Aviv, but is moving warships and other military assets to the Middle East.

Sir Keir, who has managed to strike the first trade deal with Trump, will want to leverage his "good relationship" with the US leader at the G7 to press for de-escalation in the Middle East, while he also hopes to use the summit to further discuss the further the interests of Ukraine with Trump and raise again the prospects of Russian sanctions.

"We've got President Zelenskyy coming so that provides a good opportunity for us to discuss again as a group," the PM told me on the flight over to Canada. "My long-standing view is, we need to get Russia to the table for an unconditional ceasefire. That's not been really straightforward. But we do need to be clear about what we need to get to the table and that if that doesn't happen, sanctions will undoubtedly be part of the discussion at the G7."

But that the leaders are not planning for a joint communique - a document outlining what the leaders have agreed - tells you a lot. When they last gathered with Trump in Canada for the G7 back in 2018, the US president rather spectacularly fell out with Justin Trudeau when the former Canadian president threatened to retaliate against US tariffs and refused to sign the G7 agreement.

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